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Investment philosophy

Absolute Returns
Trenline's aim is to achieve positive returns in all market conditions, and it is thus considered an absolute return manager.

In markets with short-term volatility or where no trends exist - conditions which can result in flat or negative performance for this style of management - the investment manager strives to preserve capital. The program may take a neutral position (exit the market) rather than risk trading capital. While there can be no guarantee against losses, the trading discipline is designed to preserve capital while waiting for opportunities where the program can generate profits. Market risk management takes into account volatility, liquidity & the fact that markets may turn against the prevailing trend.

While searching for longer-term trends the preservation of capital is paramount. If a pre-determined amount of capital is lost, positions will be closed regardless of fundamental market conditions.

Investment Philosophy
Despite a large degree of random, ranging behaviour, markets reflect human emotion and are prone to excess. They frequently display trending behaviour, which persists longer than justified by fundamental supply & demand factors.

This version of the nature of markets is based on the hypothesis that markets do not adjust immediately to new information. Investors' expectations adjust at different times & rates, and thus manifest themselves in long-term price trends. This may be the result of differing evaluation processes, differing levels of risk tolerance, or uncertainty. Further, while prices may initially over- or under-react to new information, they will eventually reflect all relevant information - including fundamental, political or psychological factors. Gradual price adjustments manifest themselves in long-term trends, which themselves can influence the course of events and from which profit opportunities can arise. Such market inefficiencies can be exploited through a combination of trend detection & risk management.

This investment philosophy is based on the premise that market prices, rather than market fundamentals, provide the key information necessary to make investment decisions. The  investment approach outlined below is therefore based on the analysis of price - more particularly the identification of trends that can be exploited for profit. This program will participate in both rising & falling trends; it does not have a directional bias nor does it attempt to forecast or predict market turning points. Once a position has been established in a market that has been identified as trending, no pre-set price target for profits is established. The initiation & liquidation of positions is generally in the direction of the price trend.

Such trends may not develop, however, and there have been significant periods in the past without price trends.


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